Toyota: No Electric RAV4 For You!

According to this source, Toyota will reserve its plug-in RAV4 product (co-produced with Tesla) for fleets and government entities, and won't sell them to the general public.

The Toyota RAV4 EV will make its comeback after first being sold 15 years ago. The vehicle won't be made available to consumers, Yoza said, instead they are focusing on "very strategic applications" such as fleets and car sharing programs. Despite being a BEV that could benefit from fast charging, the RAV4 EV will not include a CHAdeMO charging port. Yoza said Toyota will not offer fast charging on any vehicles until the SAE determines a standard.

 I can hear the shrieking of the BEV boosters all the way from my perch here in Detroit.  "Toyota thinks it's the 1990's!"  Several are probably loading up their super-8 movie cameras in preparation for "Who Killed The Electric Car 2".

Why would Toyota do it this way?  Simple.  Cost.  Chances are the RAV4 EV will be so expensive that Toyota doesn't want to lose a ton of money on them.  Think about the overhead for a new small volume vehicle--dealer training, special service tools, parts distribution.  Instead, by keeping it fleet only, Toyota can keep costs down by centralizing service and support.  

The RAV4 EV is mostly a product for CARB and the "green states" who follow California mandates.  It helps get Toyota the EV points it needs in California, so it can keep selling Tundras (13/17MPG) Sequoias (13/18MPG), FJ Cruisers (15/20MPG) and 4Runners (17/22MPG).   

CNG Civic: Cheap Running But Slow

The Honda Civic GX is slated to be sold to retail customers nationally in 2012 (it was only available in four states, previously).  Since it runs on compressed natural gas, it is relatively cheap to run, with CNG fuel economy in the range of 28mpg (EPA estimate) and CNG costing around $1.70/gal.  

However, there are some big trade-offs involved in driving a Civic GX.  Acceleration is poor, with 0-60mph times coming in at 12.6s according to Edmunds.  The range is limited compared to a gasoline powered car, or a Chevy Volt, typically around 200 miles.  And if you want to fuel at home, which is likely because CNG stations are not common, you need to install a CNG compressor which will cost you around $5000, installed.  

Does the Civic GX make more sense than a Chevrolet Volt?  It's a tough call.  The Volt's price (after subsidy) is around $33,000.  The GX price is about $30,000 if you include the cost of the CNG compressor.  For the extra $3,000 you gain the ability to fuel anywhere (if you run it on gasoline or charge at 110v).  CNG miles cost about $.07, while all-electric miles will cost you about $0.06 per mile.  

But the Volt gets to 60mph in about 8.5s, and in range sustaining (gas) mode has a range of over 300 miles.  I think while the government tax credit is in place, I'd take the Volt.

A Couple Evening Car Photos

I went to Woodward to get some ice cream today before sunset. Spotted a few neat cars.

This one appears to be a GM guy driving a late pre-production Chevrolet Caprice.

And this is a tail light of a new Cadillac SRX crossover. It surprised me, the shape of it, I had not noticed it before. It's like a little throwback fin, back to the 1970's.

Carbon Motors, Aptera, VPG, etc.

For a while, it looked like all of the smart kids knew how to make a better car, and how to run the business better than the big boys.  There was a "gold rush" of sorts, as electric car and other niche producers scrambled to set up shop and grab venture capital funding.   

Then the hard economic reality kicked in.   Making cars is hard.  It takes a huge amount of money, people, and time.  And the regulatory hurdles are enormous.

Look at the up-start graveyard.  Bricklin's Visionary Vehicles?  Nowhere.  Mahindra USA?  Limbo at best.  

Aptera is waiting for a federal loan which will probably never come.

So apparently is Carbon Motors, the purpose-built BMW diesel powered police vehicle.  Carbon requested $310,000,000, but is still waiting a year later.  

VPG, maker of a purpose built wheelchair accessible taxi vehicle, apparently got a $50,000,000 loan from DOE to produce a CNG version.  

Survey: U.S. Consumers Unwilling To Pay For CAFE

The Boston Consulting Group, a business consultancy, has issued an interesting report about how automakers can achieve the stringent 2020 fuel economy and CO2 emissions standards without having to resort to electric vehicles.  There is a lot of interesting stuff in there, and as I digest it I'll probably post more about it.

One thing that jumped out at me is this table.  In it, a majority 56% of survey respondents in the U.S. are not willing to pay any premium for an "environmentally friendly car".

And also, consider the odd result for the people who would, if they vehicle would pay for itself.  They are willing to pay up to $3,900 premium, but expect it to pay back in 3 years.  That implies an expected fuel savings of 325 gal/year at $4/gal.  A 27mpg car uses 444 gal/year with a typical 12,000 mile/year driver.  This means people expect the equivalent of going from 27mpg to 100mpg, for $3,900!   Clearly, this is not going to be realistic in any short term time scale. 

The closest vehicle we have now to 100mpg is the Volt, which carries a premium of about $15,000 (compared to a well equipped Cruze).  

So, basically, American consumers are saying, "we'd love fuel efficient cars--as long as they don't cost much (or anything) extra".

CAFE May Cramp High End Luxury Market

An interesting piece in the WSJ, here, expains that luxury car makers such as Porsche and Mercedes may be severely impacted by future CAFE rules.

Future U.S. government fuel economy regulations could saddle auto makers with steep fines or even bar the sale of certain models. Violations of proposed government standards could cost auto makers up to $25,000 a vehicle beginning in 2016, up from current levels of $5 to hundreds of dollars per vehicle.

The issue for the luxury automakers is that CAFE is a fleet average, not a per-car requirement. Large full line carmakers like GM can produce lots of Cruzes to offset a few Cadillac V8's. However, Mercedes doesn't sell enough high MPG vehicles to avoid paying today's fine. And when CAFE marches north of 50mpg average, Mercedes only option is to find some hybrid electric powertrains schnell.

I am not a fan of CAFE because of the way it hides regulation from the consumer, and distorts the car market. However, I don't see why luxury car makers such as Mercedes should be exempt. If CAFE is the regulatory regime, and the goal is to reduce fuel consumption, the luxury car makers should not be allowed to skate.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that powerful cars should be banned. But I think the wealthy folks who love European luxury cars can afford a "CO2 premium" for their sins. I also admit, bad economic policy aside, that I like the competitive advantage that CAFE gives the full-line automakers such as the Detroit 3.

The Tablet Race?

Somehow, the wizards at Apple figured out that the next big thing in
personal computing was going to be the tablet. Apple's iPad wasn't
even that great of a computer when it first went on sale. They are
great for consuming media (as long as it isn't Flash) but not great
for any sort of intense productive or creative work.

What amazes me is that the very smart people at companies like HP,
Dell, Motorola, and Microsoft were apparently unready to compete.
Only now are credible iPad alternatives appearing, like the Galaxy and
Xoom, but even these are closer to oversized smart phones than general
purpose computers.

Where is Microsoft? Why isn't there a useable Windows edition
optimized for fingertips and not mice?

Now here comes HP, with another tablet OS, based on its (dying) Palm
sourced WebOS.

I think people will settle on two or three systems at most. One may
be Windows, I think, when Microsoft is finally ready. The other will
be Android which has a huge head start over WebOS and RIM's QNX. And
Apples iOS of course is too big to go away.

Me, I about to pull the trigger on an Eee Pad Transformer or maybe an
Iconia, if I can find a nice deal. I want Flash support and a
credible app store.